I recently analyzed the Fort Morgan/Gulf Shores Bay front market for a recent tax dispute. (effective date 9/30/2007) I had 2 lots, one much greater than 100FF, and one was 50FF.

Here are my conclusions:

With the market as slow as it has been and so few sales, we have been forced to use any and all sales available if limited to a time frame. All waterfront sales in Fort Morgan and Gulf Shores were analyzed to compare to the subject lot. The only available bay front lot to sell within the assessment period is the 50 foot lot that sold for $260K. This is inferior to the large lot, but an excellent comp for the 49 foot lot. Since this is the only bay lot and is inferior to the large lot, I am forced to compare to superior locations. The smallest gulf front lots (50FF) are used for comparison. In a market where there are limited or no comps, historical paired analyses are performed with past sales in order to determine a current market value. The following is a paired sales analysis of vacant waterfront sales in Gulf Shores/Fort Morgan from 2005, when sales were more abundant.

Bay Front Sales

Hwy 180             100FF             7/05                         $735,000                 $7,350

W Hwy 180         84 FF             6/05                         $575,000                 $6,845

Choctaw Rd       50FF                 3/06                         $310,000                 $6,200

Gulf Front Sales

W Hwy 180         50FF(Deep lot/Sup) 3/05                 $900,000             $18,000

Ponce De Leon        75FF                         12/06                 $800,000           $10,667

W Beach Blvd         50FF                     2/05                     $1,100,000          $22,000

Recent Waterfront Sales

W Beach Blvd,38A 50 FF                 6/07                     $667,500             $13,350

W Beach Blvd,38B 50 FF                 6/07                     $667,500                $13,350

W Seashell Dr         68FF                 7/07                        $670,000                 $9,853

Ponce De Leon         65FF                 7/07                        $850,000             $13,080

Ponce De Leon         75FF                 12/06                     $800,000             $10,667

W Hwy 180                 50FF                 10/06                     $260,000                $5,200

The subject lot fronts the Bay with approximately 300FF. This is superior to the older bay front sales with 100FF and 150FF. There are no sales available that are comparable to the subject lot. With limited Bay front sales, and none comparable, it must be compared to a superior location, and smaller lot, such as the gulf front sales. Using a paired sales analysis of the bay front sales and the gulf front sales in 2005, it is my opinion that the subject is closer in value to the 50FF and 65FF gulf front sales on W Hwy 180 and the 75FF gulf front sale on Ponce de Leon in 2005. Comparing these lots to the sales in the assessment period, it is my opinion that the subject has a value somewhere between the W Seashell Drive and Ponce de Leon sales.